| February 10, 2004
Northern Ireland Update
Political developments
The formal political peace process over the past number of months
has been start and stop—with a good deal more stop than
start.
An impasse between Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein brought down
the power sharing Executive over a year ago and led to a prolonged
suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly. Two postponements
by the British government of scheduled elections followed. This
was done in the hope that some behind-the-scene negotiations might
find a way of salvaging a deal by which unionists and republicans
could once again share power after elections were held. Such a
deal would facilitate the setting up of a new Executive to which
the British government in Westminster could devolve limited powers.
A deal, which included significant movement by republicans on
disarmament, would also have given the Ulster Unionists a better
chance of polling well in elections when they came. However, no
such deal was reached and the longer time went on pressure mounted
to hold fresh elections in Northern Ireland that would gauge the
relative strength of mandates the different parties now have.
Those elections in November produced just the result that many
people feared. On the unionist side (pro-British), the Ulster
Unionists, led by David Trimble, were overtaken by the Democratic
Unionists, led by Ian Paisley. On the nationalist side (pro-Irish),
Sinn Fein outpolled the more moderate SDLP. Following the elections
held shortly after the Belfast Agreement was signed in 1998 it
was relatively easy to establish a power sharing Executive when
the relatively moderate Ulster Unionist and SDLP were the two
largest parties returned to the Assembly. The situation now is
much more difficult. Is it even conceivable that these two much
more fiercely polarized parties could cooperate in governing Northern
Ireland?
Shortly after Christmas, three Ulster Unionist Assembly members
(led by Jeffrey Donaldson) defected to the DUP, further increasingly
their strength.
The formula for shared government contained in the Belfast Agreement
provides for a period of so many weeks after an election is held
for an Executive to be formed with broad support from both unionist
and nationalist parties. Once that is completed, certain responsibilities
for local affairs will then be devolved from the UK government
to that Executive and the Northern Ireland Assembly. However,
there is also a stipulation that if an Executive cannot be formed
within the time limit a “Review of the workings of the Agreement”
is automatically triggered.
After the results of the November election were known it was
a foregone conclusion that no Executive would be formed and a
review would take place. In fact, much of the campaigning before
the election centered on how respective parties would approach
the review. In particular, the DUP proclaimed boldly that rather
than participating in the “review” of the working
of the current agreement they would in fact be looking for a “renegotiation”
of a better agreement. Most other parties asserted time and again
that the 1998 Belfast Agreement, though needing some tweaking,
is the only show in town and repeatedly asked the DUP whom, in
reality, they thought they would be renegotiating with—particularly
since the DUP also repeatedly asserted that they would not be
talking to Sinn Fein while any threat of violence from the IRA
remains part of the equation.
The formal review of the implementation of the Belfast Agreement
got under way at the beginning of February. The British and Irish
governments will jointly chair the discussions in Belfast that
will involve all the parties elected to the Stormont Assembly
last November. The talks could run until Easter and Ulster Secretary
of State, Paul Murphy, has hinted that if they fail fresh elections
could be called by June. That would be a last ditch effort to
change the party representation which emerged after the November
elections and possibly give a better chance of some new deal involving
both unionists and nationalists to emerge.
In the review it is expected that the DUP will propose radical
reforms to the Belfast Agreement. They want a smaller Assembly,
less departments and major changes to the way Northern Ireland
is ruled. In a paper released this week, it is clear that their
plan will involve a system under which power would rest with the
108-strong Assembly as a whole rather than the 12 ministers who
governed Northern Ireland before devolution collapsed in October
2002. This would give Gerry Adams’ party a say in how the
province is run but prevent Sinn Fein exercising executive power
as they did with the education and health portfolios prior to
the reintroduction of direct rule. It would also allow the DUP
to honor their campaign promise not to share Executive power with
Sinn Fein.
Both Sinn Fein and the SDLP insist the review should not be treated
as a renegotiation of the agreement and that the two governments
should make it clear to the DUP that while the agreement is up
for review it is not up for rewriting. They are both looking for
a short process to tweak a few particular issues in how the existing
agreement is operated.
While the DUP are the ones looking for a renegotiation or a new
agreement, they are not the only ones seeking changes in the review.
The cross-community Alliance Party is also proposing reforms,
including changes to the Assembly’s voting system, which
currently forces a cross-community party like themselves to identify
itself as either “unionist” or “nationalist”
in certain critical votes that require weighted support from both
sides, rather than a simple majority of the 108 Assembly members.
Alliance and those in other parties eager to see a return to
devolved government are already becoming frustrated by what they
see as a lack of urgency in the way in which the British and Irish
governments are engaging in the search for some breakthrough.
Meanwhile, some senior civil servants say privately what some
commentators say out loud: The review is likely to go in circles
until Easter, after which further efforts to restore devolution
may be abandoned and direct rule with it until at least after
European and United Kingdom elections due to take place in the
next couple of years.
Racial attacks
In recent months there have been a number of serious attacks
against ethnic minorities living in several districts of Belfast.
They highlight an issue that has long been here but often overlooked,
given the larger sectarian conflict going on in this society.
They reflect a marked increase in racial tension as the numbers
of asylum seekers, refugees, and immigrants in Northern Ireland—until
recently quite low—begin to grow. Above all, they make
it clear that deeper than either racism or sectarianism is a fundamental
difficulty in accepting and dealing positively with difference.
In that respect, Northern Ireland manifests division between people
in particular ways, but it is far from unique.
Where are the churches in all this?
All over the place! Many church people here are themselves part
of the drift to the political extremes. Many of them are part
of the sizeable section of the electorate who didn’t vote
in the November elections because they see no serious prospect
of finding a better way forward or are actually quite comfortable
in their own circumstances and simply tune out on the bigger picture.
Many of them are also faithfully continuing to seek new and strengthen
existing relationships across the divides in the recognition that
any stable future here has to be built on trust.
Four developments deserve special mention and our
prayers:
- EMBRACE is a new network of church and community groups reaching
out to asylum seekers, refugees, and ethnic minority groupings
in Northern Ireland—and helping the majority population
understand and respond compassionately to their circumstances.
- The HARD GOSPEL is an initiative of the Church of Ireland
with which I and others in Partners in Transformation have been
working as consultants for over two years. It is developing
an education and action strategy across the 390-plus Church
of Ireland parishes in Ireland to help members explore and respond
to a variety of “dealing positively with difference”
issues in response to the “hard gospel” imperative
“to love our neighbors as ourselves.”
- The PREPARING YOUTH FOR PEACE program of the Presbyterian
Church in Ireland Youth Department helps youth and youth leaders
see how divisions in this society impact their lives and how
they can contribute to the creation of a more peaceful society.
- BUILDING WALLS – BUILDING BRIDGES was the name of an
initial training day I was invited to lead last week for thirty
Roman Catholic priests and lay workers from Passionist communities
in Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, and Scotland to
explore creative response to living with “the other”
(whoever that may be in their context) as an integral part of
their vocation.
As you continue to pray for those who suffer as a result of violence
here and for the politicians whose words and actions will shape
the future direction of Northern Ireland, please pay also for
church leaders and workers involved in creative approaches to
building peace in this society.
Doug Baker
PC(USA) Mission Co-worker
The 2004 Mission Yearbook for Prayer & Study, p. 333 |
