| September 1, 2004
Northern Ireland Update
Tenth Anniversary of IRA ceasefire
Yesterday marked the tenth anniversary of the first
IRA ceasefire. Although it was broken 18 months later with a massive
bomb at Canary Wharf in London and other atrocities followed before
a ceasefire was reinstated in 1997, that 1994 decision by Republicans
and the Loyalist ceasefire that followed six weeks later remain
a critical watershed in the long peace process in Northern Ireland.
So what has changed over those ten years and where are we now?
On the positive side
- The level of violence has dropped dramatically—and
with it the level of security operations in the province. It
is now rare to see military vehicles on the street and rarer
to see British army foot patrols or be stopped at military checkpoints.
- The economy has improved dramatically. Unemployment is around
7 percent, compared to 20 percent at the height of the violence.
There has been massive development of office space, leisure
facilities, and hotels. Tourists are a common sight.
- There is a much wider acceptance amongst political and civic
leadership that those whose political aspirations they oppose
do nonetheless have the right to hold and pursue those aspirations—so
long as they do so non-violently. There is also a strong recognition
that differences must be worked out through dialogue and a peaceful
future requires that we learn how to accommodate each other’s
differences. Politicians of all parties are cooperating in a
more positive manner in local district councils, including Belfast
City Council.
On the negative side
- In many ways this society is more polarised than ever.
- Last November’s election, which saw power shift from
the more moderate Ulster Unionist and SDLP parties to the DUP
and Sinn Fein respectively, has caused a deep freeze in politics.
- Housing has become more segregated than ever, and with it
there continues to be real tension along interface areas.
- Fear, mistrust, and intolerance have become even more deep-seated,
as real differences have surfaced and concerns raised by of
each section of the community have been met with resistance
or refusal from the other.
- Dissident Republicans marked the anniversary with a series
of bomb scares that disrupted traffic in various areas across
Belfast and reminded everyone that there are those who remain
opposed to any peace process.
- The slow progress in the peace process has left many disillusioned
and convinced that there will never be a real resolution of
the conflict.
- The reduction in violence and the degree of normality that
has returned has left many complacent and believing that further
movement toward reconciliation is neither necessary or worth
the effort required.
Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams marked the anniversary by saying
there is a “heavy onus” on the Northern Ireland parties
and the British and Irish governments to bring the outstanding
issues of the peace process to “a definitive and conclusive
closure.”
As the anniversary passed, government officials in London and
Dublin were making final preparations for talks to be held later
this month in Kent (England) aimed at restoring devolution and
winding up both the IRA and Loyalist terror groups.
The talks are intended to broker a deal that will restore a devolved
administration for Northern Ireland at Stormont. (“Devolved”
means one led by local politicians elected by the people of Northern
Ireland rather than by ministers from other parts of the United
Kingdom appointed by the government in Westminster. The Northern
Ireland Assembly has been suspended for nearly two years because
of a breakdown of trust between the two main unionist parties
and Sinn Fein.) The deal, which the talks are hoped to deliver,
will have to deal substantially with the future of the IRA if
it is to have any chance of success.
As these talks approach, both Sinn Fein and the DUP are conscious
of why they were given an increased vote in last November’s
elections. For the DUP the message is clear: unionist voters want
them in there arguing their case rather than making concessions.
For Sinn Fein the message is that people like republican politics
but not republican violence, and they hope that by strengthening
their mandate they can actually help to move away from IRA violence.
Each community voted for their toughest negotiating team, and
that means any breakthrough will be very difficult to reach but
more likely to work if it is.
At one level both the DUP and Sinn Fein are demanding actions
which they know are not going to happen: Sinn Fein wants the institutions
set up by the Good Friday Agreement reactivated immediately and
all of the promises made by the British Government about demilitarisation,
changes in policing, changes in legal procedures and amnesty for
on-the-run paramilitaries enacted with no further movement required
by the IRA on decommissioning. The DUP want major changes made
to the Belfast Agreement itself, and they also want not only decommissioning
of IRA weapons but complete disbandment of the IRA. At another
level, both Sinn Fein and the DUP do appear to want to make progress
toward restoring devolution and do seem to be sending out signals
that they know hard compromises will need to be made in order
for this to happen. Sinn Fein leaders have stated publicly that
they not only can foresee a time when the IRA could be stood down
totally but also believe it is essential that this happen. DUP
leaders have hinted that the Northern Ireland Assembly could be
reactivated without a power-sharing executive being required to
operate it in the meantime and that they could foresee some basis
of sharing power with Sinn Fein once the IRA is stood down.
Leaders of the more moderate nationalist Social Democratic and
Labour Party (SDLP) feel that in recent years there has been too
much focus by the two governments on those parties (Unionist and
Sinn Fein) that have been putting obstacles in the way of implementing
the 1998 Belfast Agreement and too much side dealing with them.
They and others like the Alliance Party are urging that the talks
next month remain inclusive of all elected groups in Northern
Ireland and avoid any fudges or side dealings so that they can
indeed be both transparent and conclusive.
Ten years after the first IRA ceasefire there are some signs
that a more complete and permanent deal could be made to restore
devolved government and rid this society of the scourge of politically
motivated violence. A lot of behind-the-scenes activity is obviously
taking place in the hope of a breakthrough. On the street the
average person is skeptical that it will work, feeling that we
have been there before and then been disappointed. And so expectations
for any quantum leap forward in the near future are low. At the
same time, the vast majority of people know violence has been
substantially reduced and that there is no real likelihood of
a return to the levels experienced during the worst years of the
Troubles. And so most wait, not with baited breath but with a
mixture of emotions, to see what will transpire on the big political
stage. Meanwhile, in small but significant ways, many get on with
the task of reconciliation on small stages throughout this land,
promoting cross-community development projects along urban interfaces,
participating in inter-church dialogue groups, providing youth
facilities and programs which offer alternatives to becoming involved
in paramilitaries, training leadership in conflict resolution,
knowing that whatever happens in the big political arena it has
to be made real at the local level, and that perhaps what happens
even at the local level now can help to free up future movement
on the big stage.
(Rev) Doug Baker
PC(USA) Mission Co-worker
The 2004 Mission Yearbook for Prayer & Study, p. 333 |
