March 4, 2008

Paisley Standing Down – as Northern Ireland’s First Minister

On March 4, 2008, the Reverend Dr. Ian Paisley, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party and First Minister of the Northern Ireland Assembly, announced he will be stepping down from both roles in early May 2008. Dr Paisley will be 82 next month. Given his age, it is not surprising he would make such a move. However, it is a reversal from what he had been saying even recently, and the question is raised whether he has willingly embraced this decision or been pushed by party colleagues. Although he has emphatically stated that the decision to go is his alone, most commentators argue that the announcement came amid internal DUP pressure for him to set a date to go.

Dr. Paisley was the founder and until a few months ago “moderator for life” of the Free Presbyterian Church, a relatively small—and fanatically anti-Catholic—fundamentalist denomination that has long been an inhibiting influence snapping at the heels of those in more mainstream Protestant churches in Ireland, which have engaged in more open relationships with Roman Catholics and each other.

The strongly pro-British Democratic Unionist Party was also largely his creation, and he has been the leader since its inception decades ago. Most of his political career has been spent in opposition not only to Irish nationalism and Republicanism but also to the Ulster Unionist Party and other more moderate expressions of unionism. Over the decades he rallied opposition to any cooperation with nationalists within Northern Ireland and any cross-border cooperation with the Republic of Ireland. In so doing he was a significant influence in bringing down successive Ulster Unionist leaders, most recently David Trimble, who was the initial First Minister in the power-sharing Executive set up after the 1998 Belfast Agreement.

After the DUP succeeded in topping the Ulster Unionists in the last elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, Ian Paisley was presented with a new choice. Having forever been in the wings expressing opposition and criticizing, he was now in a position to assume power. The price for that under the power-sharing principles of the Northern Ireland Assembly set up by the Belfast Agreement of 1998, however, was going into government with Sinn Fein, which had succeeded in winning the largest Nationalist vote. This was something he had vowed he could not consider, at least until all traces of the IRA had disappeared—their weapons, the Army Council, etc—and Sinn Fein had acknowledged that the violence of the Republican Movement over the decades of the Troubles had been wrong.

Then in March 2007 new discussions with the British and Irish Government, and with Sinn Fein themselves, convinced him that there was no choice but to make a deal and do an about face. In May 2007 he became First Minister and Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness became Deputy First Minister. In his own words, the DUP decision to go into power-sharing with Sinn Fein “saved us from an effectual united Ireland,” through the likely plan B the British and Irish governments would impose on Northern Ireland if Northern Irish parties would not themselves embrace a devolved power-sharing arrangement.  He insisted that it wasn’t that he liked the idea of power-sharing with Sinn Fein, he simply felt there was no other option open to them to secure the continued union of Northern Ireland with the United Kingdom.

That decision gained him credit from the British and Irish governments and many on-lookers but enraged a rump of his own party and many within his Free Presbyterian church. In September at the annual meeting of the Free Presbyterian Church, Paisley was not re-selected as moderator. Then later in 2007, the DUP’s member of the European Parliament, Jim Allister, and a few other elected DUP officials broke away from the party and formed a new group called Traditional Unionist Voice, saying that Ian Paisley’s decision to go into government with “unrepentant terrorists” was something they simply could not support.

As time went on and Dr. Paisley appeared in official circumstances more and more with Martin McGuinness, they were often observed laughing together. Many saw this as a good omen, but for those from his party who opposed his power-sharing step, this was repugnant and the two were referred to more and more frequently as “the Chuckle Brothers,” a derogatory reference to dim-witted characters on a BBC television children’s program. There was also a growing perception amongst traditional DUP supporters that he had chosen power over principle.

Then on February 14, 2008, in a by-election for a councilor to Banbridge District Council, the Traditional Unionist Voice ran a candidate in opposition to the DUP’s own choice.  Fully 27 percent of normally DUP voters registered their displeasure with Ian Paisley and the DUP by voting Traditional Unionist Voice. The result was that they split their numbers and an Ulster Unionist candidate was elected instead, which was a wake-up call to the DUP.

During the same period, there was growing controversy about the dealings of his son, Ian Paisley Jr., who he had appointed as his Junior Minister in the office of First and Deputy First Ministers. Revelations came out about lobbying within Stormont on behalf of a businessman bidding for approval to develop a new visitor’s center at the Giant’s Causeway. Later it was revealed that during the crucial St Andrew’s negotiations with the British and Irish governments in March 2007, Ian Paisley Jr. had used coffee breaks to lobby the Prime Minister on behalf of business deals for some of his constituents. Finally, it was revealed that Ian Paisley Jr. rented with taxpayers money what most viewed as excessive constituency office space in Ballymena from a relative. Pressure within and beyond the DUP mounted for Ian Paisley Jr’s resignation as Junior Minister, which eventually occurred. In the eyes of many, the challenges to Ian Jr’s role was really a thinly veiled attack on Ian Sr.

Whether that was the case or not, many DUP MLAs were angered when a few days after Ian Jr’s resignation, Ian Sr. appointed him as a DUP member of the Policing Board. Pressure from DUP supporters began to mount on Ian Paisley himself to go. His wife, Baroness Eileen Paisley, said that she wanted him to remain in office despite his age and the demands on his energy because he still had much to do. Interestingly, no other DUP voices joined in behind her, and within days Ian Paisley announced that he was stepping down in May.

Why May instead of straight away? In part, it may be face-saving—having it look more like he is choosing his own timing, rather than being shoved. In part, it may be because that is the first anniversary of his taking up the reigns of power. He has indicated that he chose that time because it comes after the big investment conference involving U.S. officials, something he wants to see through and perhaps be remembered for.

Speculation has now turned to who will succeed him. Clearly Ian Jr is not in the running! Most commentators expect a smooth transition with Peter Robinson, current DUP deputy leader, becoming both party leader and First Minister. Key party leaders are reputed to have held strategy meetings a few weeks ago, and the decision may well have been all but made at that time.

Whoever succeeds him in those roles, Ian Paisley will not be completely disappearing from the political stage. He plans to stay on as a MP in Westminster and an MLA at Stormont.

What of his legacy? It is too soon to tell. The politician who was famous for saying no may be remembered for finally saying yes at a critical moment and paving the way for restored devolved government in Northern Ireland and power-sharing between factions most could never have imagined. Alternatively, as time goes on, there may be more reflection on the longer role he played in Northern Ireland’s “Troubles” as a wrecker of previous settlement attempts that might have worked and saved many lives.

There is no suggestion whatsoever that the power-sharing arrangement between the DUP and Sinn Fein will collapse when he goes. However, the working relationship between Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness is not likely to appear so amicable, at least in the short term.

Meanwhile, tough decisions on huge unresolved political issues for the Stormont Assembly loom on the horizon, namely, when and how responsibility for policing and justice matters will be devolved from Westminster, how to resolve very different views on education, and how to tackle hard budgetary decisions with so many needs competing for limited funds. Devolution and power-sharing are having some success and appear secure, but there is a long road ahead littered with challenges around which cracks may begin to widen. Those who have to tread it need all of our prayers.

Doug Baker

The 2008 Mission Yearbook for Prayer & Study, p. 152