Dear Friends,

A ray of hope is shining on Nicaragua, as the clouds gather and the rainy season begins.

Five months ago, a new President was inaugurated. His name is Enrique Bolaños, and his campaign promised to bring an era of honesty to Nicaragua. Unexpectedly, he is trying to follow through on that promise, and even more unexpectedly, he seems to be succeeding. A string of corrupt politicians have already gone to jail, and the former president may be on his way. Public support for the efforts to root out and punish dishonest politicians borders on universal.

In my work here as an analyst and writer, I spend half my time studying the news, and half talking with people who are trying to get by in spite of the news. When something positive happens, people here are eager to support it, and in doing so, they begin to make the news themselves. The people support fighting corruption.

A few days ago, I went out to cover the largest demonstration so far in support of President Bolaños’ anti-corruption efforts. I was struck by a number of things. First, that the people present had a clear understanding of the issues. There are many competing views presented in the assorted media, but the signs and chants showed that the marchers had drawn their own conclusions. Second, at some level, they seemed to have a sense of themselves as civil society. They marched as individuals and as groups, not as political parties. They came to march because they had been invited, not because they had been instructed to. Third, they supported Bolaños’ anti-corruption campaign, specifically. They did not give him carte blanche to do whatever he likes. This may prove to be a wise move down the line, when the time comes for him to present his social policies.

I feel blessed to be here right now. There is a new optimism, as the crimes of the last five years are prosecuted, one at a time. There is a sense that the corrupt will face justice.

Still, there is no guarantee that justice will happen on a larger scale. Illiteracy and formal unemployment are both over 60 percent, most Nicaraguans have little or no health care, rural infrastructure is still non-existent, and so forth. There has been little talk of addressing these issues. In fact, the prevailing economic trend is to treat Nicaragua as a pool of cheap labor to be exploited in sweatshops. Instead of working to relieve the desperation here, the plan is to take advantage of it, and this requires perpetuating it. There is no assistance for small business or traditional agriculture, as they are forced to compete with vastly wealthier foreign corporations.

Likewise, there is no talk of canceling the foreign debt. Even though Nicaragua spends more on the debt than it does on education and health combined, and even though it pays more on the debt than it receives in foreign aid (and new loans to pay off its old loans), it still cannot even keep up with the interest on its debt, let alone pay off the principle. Any poverty-reduction plan that fails to include debt cancellation is a band-aid on a bullet wound.

But there is some hope. An honest government is a fundamental requirement for development, regardless of the model applied. As the corruption is rooted out, perhaps a space will be created to debate the merits of different models. With civil society organized and engaged, it may be in a position to push for a model that encourages domestic investment, and production for use, not export. In other words, a development model that benefits the poor.

In the meantime, there are other worries. The beginning of the rainy season has brought flooding to the Pacific side of the country. A boy drowned in one of the 15-foot deep drainage canals that cut through Managua, which become raging rivers in heavy rains. Outside Managua, there has been some damage, and travel is difficult. Problems like this are routine in this country, where maps label some roads as only existing in the dry season. The people at the far end of such roads buy large quantities of dried goods at the end of the rainy season, and then resign themselves to being incommunicado for six months. Any food, medical care or education they want, they have to provide for themselves.

Still, by and large, the beginning of the rainy season is a welcome time in Nicaragua. The unbearable heat breaks, with temperatures plunging into the 70s, and even upper 60s at night. People get out their coats. In the country, farmers begin to plant. The hillsides turn from brown to green. Children go back to school (the school year here is March to December). It is a time of positive changes. This year, even more so.

To follow current events in Nicaragua, please visit my news website, http://www.cepad.info. There, you can find the CEPAD Report, which I edit. Individual articles are available to read online as well. You can also write to me directly at esteban@cepad.info.

Peace!

Steve Herrick