Although the election produced
no major surprises, there were some significant aspects to the
outcome. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) was returned
to power with a slightly larger majority (just under 70%), ensuring
that Parliament would reelect Thabo Mbeki for a second (and final)
term as President. For the first time, the ANC emerged as the
most popular party in all nine of South Africa's provinces. In
two provinces—the Western Cape (largest city: Cape Town)
and KwaZulu-Natal (largest city: Durban), the party does still
does not have a clear majority and will need to form a coalition
with other parties in order to govern.
In the affluent Western Cape, its partner will be the New National
Party (NNP), the successor to the party that introduced the policy
of strict racial segregation (apartheid) in the late 1940s. The
fact that the ANC and the NNP can contemplate an alliance is evidence
of the radical transformation that has taken place within the
NNP. But the NNP's attempts to embrace multi-racialism have alienated
many of its traditional supporters whilst winning few converts
among its former opponents. The party's share of the national
vote slipped from 7% in 1999 to less than 2% this time, a result
which some see as the beginning of the end for the NNP.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC may need to form a coalition with another
former enemy, Chief Buthelezi's Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), in
order to govern. However, the relationship between the ANC and
the IFP remains tense, so even if a bargain can be struck, it
is likely to result in a less stable coalition.
Twelve of the 21 parties contesting the election managed to secure
parliamentary seats under South Africa's system of proportional
representation, although the nine smallest parties will hold a
total of just 43 seats (out of 400). The Independent Democrats
(ID), formed last year by former Pan-African Congress MP Patricia
de Lille, is the only new party represented in Parliament. De
Lille, known for her tireless community work and her outspoken
criticism of government policies on HIV/AIDS and defense spending,
won more support than some observers expected—the ID secured
as many seats as the NNP—but it is too soon to tell if her
personal charisma and populist appeal will make the party a lasting
political force.
The election also enhanced the role of women in government. De
Lille will be one of 131 women (and the only female party leader)
in the new Parliament. Eight of South Africa's nine provinces
will get new premiers (similar to state governors in the United
States) and four of these will be women.
What is all of this likely to mean for ordinary South Africans?
The ANC's landslide victory is likely to be interpreted as a vote
of confidence in the party's policies, despite the decline in
voter turnout from about 89% in 1999 to just over 75% this time.
As a result, few observers expect any radical change in the direction.
However, the election campaign served to place poverty and unemployment
squarely on the public agenda as the most important problems to
be addressed by the new administration. During the campaign, candidates
held a series of meetings, known as "imbizos," in local
communities. This exposed them directly to the difficulties that
many households face in finding jobs and accessing public services
and underscored the urgent need to ensure that democracy generates
tangible benefits for all South Africans.
This renewed sense of urgency is likely to continue to be balanced
by caution in the initiation of new programmes and the allocation
of public resources. Without flatly ruling out more radical solutions—such
as the guaranteed national income scheme proposed by some church
and labour bodies—the government has opted to expand gradually
access to targeted social grants (such as the child support grant
for poor families), together with a large-scale public works programme
intended to create one million short-term jobs. Critics question
whether the public works initiative can make a sustained dent
in poverty in a nation where more than eight million people are
out of work and 22 million live in poverty. If this approach does
not yield rapid and dramatic results, the government may yet be
compelled to consider more far-reaching forms of poverty relief.
The next five years should also see renewed efforts to combat
the HIV/AIDS pandemic. The government recently agreed to make
life-prolonging anti-retroviral medication available through the
public health system, largely as a result of the sustained public
pressure brought to bear by the community-based Treatment Action
Campaign. This should help to slow the rate of transmission of
the virus (especially mother-to-child transmission) and improve
the quality of life for the tenth of the population living with
the virus.
Today, South Africa celebrates ten years of democracy. The past
ten years have seen significant social change. Public institutions
have been completely overhauled to promote transparency and accountability
in government. Individuals and organizations have new opportunities
to defend their interests and contribute to shaping public policy.
South Africa's Constitution guarantees all citizens equal protection
under the law. More and more South Africans see themselves as
working towards a common future.
Important strides have also been made in realizing the socio-economic
rights articulated in the Constitution—the rights to housing,
health care, education, food, water, and social security. But
progress in this regard has been more ambiguous. For instance,
the assessment of user fees for basic services such as water and
electricity have prevented many households from taking advantage
of newly available services. Wealth and productive assets, such
as land, remain largely in the control of a small proportion of
the population. If South Africa's first decade of democracy has
been about entrenching "negative" liberties—freedom
from oppression, violence and discrimination—its next decade
must be about enabling all South Africans to enjoy the freedom
to meet their needs and build sustainable livelihoods for themselves
and their families.
Please uphold South Africa's government and people in prayer
as the nation decides how it will continue on the long road to
lasting freedom. Perhaps you are already familiar with the simple
"Prayer for Africa," which is often repeated in South
African churches: "God bless Africa. Guard her people, guide
her leaders, and grant her peace."
Grace and peace,
Doug Tilton
The 2004 Mission Yearbook for Prayer & Study, p.
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