by Herb Miller
Editor, Author, and Parish Consultant

The old adage--your viewpoint is determined by your point of viewing--applies to the information in this booklet. Before you begin reading, ask yourself two multiple-choice questions.

1. Which of the following factors most influences adult behavior?

• heredity
• childhood environment
• adult choices based on personal values

2. Which of the following factors most influences the membership and financial-giving totals of congregations?

• denominational genetics
• community population trends
• church leaders' choices based on theological values

How you answered these two questions reveals your point of viewing and predicts many of the conclusions you are likely to draw from this booklet's data. If you believe an adult group's behavior is outside of its control (totally determined by heredity and environment), you may view this report's numbers as outside your sphere of influence. On the other hand, if you think an adult group's behavior is at least partially a matter of the choices it makes, you are more likely to see these numbers as (a) a summary of church leaders' decisions during the last decade and (b) advice for making decisions that will influence the data in coming years' reports.

The 1996 Numbers

Table 1 reveals a net decrease of 33 congregations during 1996. This happened despite the addition of 43 new churches (50 churches dissolved and 26 churches merged into other congregations).

Questions for church leaders:
What changes in local, presbytery, and General Assembly leaders' values and skills are necessary to increase the number of congregations? If that is the goal, what kind of training should presbyteries provide to change local leaders' values and skills?

Table 2 reveals an amazing number of micro-membership congregations. Many people say, "Let's increase the number of mergers so we can have larger, stronger churches!" However, research findings indicate that (a) only 9 percent of merged congregations grow numerically and (b) merged congregations decline in membership (average annual rate of negative 5.7 percent) significantly faster than that of the denomination as a whole (Endnote 1).

Questions for church leaders:
For congregation mergers to assist denominational membership growth and/or strengthen congregations' ministries, what kind of consultation procedures should presbyteries provide congregations contemplating mergers?

Table 2 reveals that 65.8 percent of PCUSA congregations have fewer than 200 members. This means that at least two-thirds of the congregations classify as small-membership churches (fewer than 100 in average worship attendance). Another 23.3 percent of PCUSA congregations have 201-500 members. This means that approximately one-fourth of the congregations classify as midsize churches (100 to 300 average worship attendance).

Questions for church leaders:
Since almost 90 percent of the congregations are either small or midsize, what kind of leadership training should presbyteries offer their clergy and lay leaders?

If Lyle E. Schaller is accurate, during the next few years, congregations averaging fewer than 120 worship attenders will be unable to afford a full-time pastor. Most such churches will share a pastor with another church or be served by bivocational, part-time ordained or lay ministers (Endnote 2). Since approximately two-thirds of PCUSA churches either are or within a few years will be in that category, what kind of training should presbyteries provide for part-time, bivocational, and dual-role pastors?

The 1996 summary of financial statistics reveals that PCUSA per-capita contributions averaged $613.81, up from $581.69 in 1995. That 5.5 percent increase sounds good until compared with Americans' 1996 per-capita income increase of 4.5 percent and the 1996 Consumer Price Index increase of 3.5 percent. Thus, the 1996 contributions increase is similar to the rise in disposable income.

Questions for church leaders:
What can presbyteries do when their per-capita contribution averages have decreased significantly? Should they ask members to retire later so that their contributions are not decreased by lowered income levels? Should they provide more effective annual stewardship programs? Should they try to find out what methods are used in presbyteries whose per-capita contribution averages have significantly increased during the last three years?

Recent Trends

Table 1 indicates a decrease of 385,022 members over 10 years, an average loss of 38,502 persons per year (740 per week or 105 per day). The total number of congregations decreased by 270, or 27 churches per year (a little more than 2 per month). Over 10 years, the median number of members per congregation decreased from 145 to 126, creating greater financial stress and a larger percentage of congregations served by part-time clergy.

Questions for church leaders:
Prominent church sociologist Wade Clark Roof did a study for the United Methodist Church in the United States, which might explain some of these Presbyterian (U.S.A.) membership losses. Roof found that 74 percent of United Methodist pastors and lay leaders do not think evangelism should be on their congregation's agenda (Endnote 3). Would such a study reveal a similar attitude in PCUSA congregations? If so, what can presbyteries, synods, and General Assembly do to help change that theological perspective?

Total contributions from all PCUSA congregations increased by 11.4 percent between 1993 and 1996. However, in that period Americans' per-capita income increased 14.1 percent and the cost of living index increased 13.0 percent.

Questions for church leaders:
Most PCUSA congregations use fund-raising methods drawn from secular sources to pay their operating expenses. Few churches use biblical stewardship methods that focus on the need of the giver to give for his or her own spiritual benefit. Many congregations, especially smaller ones, use no annual stewardship campaign of any kind. Since a high-quality, spiritually focused annual stewardship campaign is the chief determiner of high per-capita contributions, what can presbyteries do to change those habits?

The Future

Researchers are supposed to be unbiased observers of phenomena, not influencers of data. The Bible does not, however, place such restrictions on presbytery leaders, pastors, and laity. In fact, Jesus' instructions in Matthew 28:19, Mark 16:15, Luke 24:47, and John 20:31 indicate that faithful disciples focus on changing the membership data, not just observing the data.

The post-Jerusalem Council news report in Acts 16:5 indicates that early disciples succeeded: "So the churches were strengthened in the faith and increased in numbers daily." Are these changes possible today? Given the classic Presbyterian (U.S.A.) inclination to produce more "silent saints" than dynamic witnesses, can the churches grow rather than continue to shrink?

The past 10 years' numbers say yes. During that time, 25.6 percent of PCUSA congregations grew larger in membership, 1.8 percent remained exactly the same size, and 72.6 percent grew smaller. Some of the 2,784 churches that grew larger were in growing-population counties. Some of these growing churches, however, were in decreasing-population counties. This means that membership growth depends on factors other than denominational genetics and environmental population trends. Membership growth is also influenced by adult church leaders' choices regarding the agenda and priorities of their congregations.

Questions for congregation leaders:
How can we identify and eliminate anti-magnetic attitudes, atmosphere, and actions? How can we begin to understand the spiritual, emotional, and physical needs of unchurched people in our community? (Endnote 4). How can we learn and apply methods that help unchurched people connect with God?

Questions for presbytery/synod/General Assembly leaders:
How can we shift from a reactive "adjudicatory" leadership style to a proactive "missional" leadership style that helps congregations become more effective in their various ministries? How can we find out what the presbyteries that organize numerous new congregations do to accomplish that goal? How can we find out what training and resources are used in presbyteries whose total membership increased during the last three years? How can we find out what training and resources are used in presbyteries whose per-member contributions during the last three years increased significantly? How can we help small and midsize congregations become more extroverted in their behaviors?

Who Will Make What Choices?

A little boy knew that his report card was far below the level of parental acceptability. He handed the report card to his father and said, "I need some help in understanding my problem. Are these grades caused by genetics or by my environment?"

Who is in charge of the numbers in this booklet? Is it denominational heredity? Is it population trends? Is it congregational and presbytery leaders?

1. Carol Grigg, To Merge or Not to Merge: A Study of the Decision of Congregations to Merge (Doctor of Ministry Thesis, Princeton Theological Seminary, 1995), published in 1996 by The Alban Institute, 7315 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1250W, Bethesda, MD 20814-3211, p. 13.

2. Lyle E. Schaller, The Parish Paper, April 1996.

3. Wade Clark Roof, Christianity Today, March 1993.

4. Several inexpensive new resources became available in 1997 from Research Services, PCUSA. For information, call: (502) 569-5165; fax (502) 569-8736.