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by Evelyn Hwang
Associate, Preparation for Ministry Office The
Lord spoke to Moses in the wilderness of Sinai, . . saying:
Take a census of the whole congregation of Israelites, . . .
every male individually; from twenty years old and upward, everyone
in Israel able to go forth to war. . . . their whole number
was six hundred three thousand five hundred and fifty (603,550).
Numbers 1:1, 2, 3, 46. (NRSV)So teach us to number
our days that we may get a heart of wisdom. Psalm 90:12. (RSV)
Whenever the question, "Why statistics?" arises, the above
two passages of scripture come to mind. There are many other
passages in the Bible about counting, but Numbers 1 and Psalm
90 seem to overshadow the others.
In Numbers 1, the Lord told Moses to take a census of all the
people of Israel, counting males 20 years of age and older who
were able to go forth to war. With the exception of the Levites,
all the tribes of Israel were counted. The total number was
603,550. Moses needed to know how many men he had in case of
war. War and death were the reality the Israelites faced to
reach the promised land. It was a matter of grave importance;
it concerned the continued existence of the people of God.
Psalm 90 has always been a favorite. The connection between
"to number our days" and "get a heart of wisdom" has been intriguing.
In numbering one's days, would one be wiser knowing how limited
the days are and therefore choosing to live a different kind
of life? Or, perhaps a younger person might rejoice after numbering
her days and seeing the large number of days yet to be lived.
It is as if the Psalmist is suggesting that the counting, the
measuring, and the mindfulness stir the heart, bringing forth
gratitude and learning. In the act of counting, one experiences
the "aha" moment and is enlightened.
During the last ten years, observers have raised concerns about
the supply and demand of pastoral leaders in the Presbyterian
Church (U.S.A.). Some were anxious that an over supply of Presbyterian
clergy existed. Pastor Nominating Committees (PNCs) were flooded
with Personal Information Forms from clergy seeking new calls.
More recently, others have suggested that a shortage of Presbyterian
clergy might exist. PNCs seem to find a lack of interested and
interesting potential pastors to consider.
Conducting a statistical study is an exercise of counting.
Through such studies, one hopes to offer some data to help people
make wise decisions about life and vocation. An analysis of
the supply and demand of pastoral leadership in the Presbyterian
Church (U.S.A.) attempts not so much to offer solutions, but
to help raise the right questions for those who are engaged
in, or preparing for, the gospel ministry. It is also for those
who have in their hearts the health and welfare of the Church,
the body of Christ. Perhaps through the counting, the still,
small voice may be heard and a wise heart may emerge.
The Facts and Figures
Two components of the supply and demand of pastoral leadership
in the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) are important: congregations
and ministers of the Word and Sacrament. To consider statistics
about one without the other is either a meaningless or misleading
exercise. In a world where every critical issue of life and
work tends to be multifaceted, wise are those who do not draw
conclusions from a single set of figures.
Ministers of the Word and Sacrament
- The total number of ministers of the Word and Sacrament
in the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) has been increasing
slowly, from 19,842 in 1987, to 20,527 in 1992, to 20,858
in 1997; a gain of 286 in five years and 1,016 in ten years.
- The number of retired ministers of the Word and Sacrament
has also been increasing, from 4,329 in 1987, to
5,577 in 1992, and 6,587 in 1997--a net increase of 1,010
retired ministers of the Word and Sacrament in the last five
years.
- The number of active ministers of the Word and Sacrament
(not counting retired ministers) has been decreasing.
In 1987, there were 15,213 active ministers. In 1992, the
number had decreased to 14,950. In 1997, there were 14,271--a
loss of 674 in five years; 942 in ten years.
- Other clergy losses from 1992 to 1997 included 503 ministers
of the Word and Sacrament removed from office and 163 ministers
dismissed to other denominations.
- Between 1992 and 1997, the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.)
ordained a total of 2,213 new ministers of the Word and Sacrament.
During the same five years, 408 ministers were received from
other denominations.
- From 1993 to 1997, there have been no significant changes
in the numbers of ministers received from other denominations
(67), dismissed to other denominations (27), removed from
office (83), and deceased (273). These figures are five-year
averages. To compare, the respective five-year averages from
1988-1992 are 73, 37, 82, and 239. With some exceptions, most
of the deceased ministers of the Word and Sacrament were already
retired.
- In 1997, there were 3,379 women ministers of the Word and
Sacrament--very few retired. In the last five years, over
40 percent of newly ordained clergy have been women.
- In 1997, there were 1,606 racial-ethnic ministers of the
Word and Sacrament (7.7 percent of the total), compared to
1,190 in 1992 (5.8 percent of the total)--an increase of 416
(35 percent) in five years.
- In 1997, 66 percent of active ministers were in parish ministry,
17 percent were in specialized ministries, and 16 percent
were other positions. In comparison with figures for 1987
(67 percent, 18 percent, and 14 percent, respectively), the
difference in each category is less than 3 percent.
The above data show that the number of ministers of the Word
and Sacrament of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) has been relatively
stable for the last ten years.
Congregations
- In 1997, there were 11,295 congregations in the Presbyterian
Church (U.S.A.). In 1992, the number was 11,456, and in 1987,
it was 11,593. This indicates a loss of 298 congregations
since 1988.
- As the figure shows, the smallest congregations (with 100
members or less) are the only category of churches that have
increased in number between 1987 and 1997. Congregations of
all other membership sizes have decreased in that time period.
The Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) is smaller than
it was ten years ago by 298 congregations. Over that period,
there has been a gain of 391 small churches (100 members or
less), a loss of 547 medium-size congregations (101-800 members),
and a loss of 135 large congregations (more than 800 members).
Some Learnings and Questions
Now that we know the numbers, what have we learned? What are
the right questions to ask? Are there areas of concern needing
serious attention? Let me venture a few responses.
- Given that the number of ministers has remained fairly stable
and the number of congregations has decreased slightly over
the last ten years, we can conclude that the relative supply
of ministers of the Word and Sacrament in the Presbyterian
Church (U.S.A.) has not changed substantially over this period.
Unless unforseen and unforeseeable changes in society, the
nation, and the world take place, no significant change in
pastoral leadership is expected in the next five years. The
decrease in the number of active ministers by 674 in the past
five years is an area of concern which needs further study.
- Over a ten-year period, the membership losses that resulted
in 135 fewer large-membership congregations (801 or more members)
mean that some congregations that previously could support
both a head of staff position and one or more associate pastor
positions, may no longer be able to do so. (Note that a few
large congregations were lost entirely after reunion when
they left the denomination, taking members and pastoral positions.)
How can presbyteries' learnings as a result of these losses
be shared with others so that future losses may be prevented?
- The concern that the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.), like
other mainline denominations, is becoming a denomination of
small churches has not been a serious one for many Presbyterian
laity. Over 1,240,000 Presbyterians are members of large-membership
congregations with multiple pastoral leaders. Another 1,054,000
Presbyterians are members of congregations with memberships
of 151-500 many of which have solo pastors. The remaining
445,000 Presbyterians are members of congregations with memberships
of 1-150--one half of these congregations are without a called
pastor.1 Presbyterians tend to have different perceptions
of their church based on the size of the congregation to which
they belong. What is the impact of these different perceptions
on the ministry and programmatic needs of the church?
- Currently the denomination has 532 commissioned lay pastors.2 About 210 CLPs are serving a specific congregation or a group
of congregations. These congregations are some of those with
memberships of 1-100 that are not financially able to call
a full-time pastor. Another 150 CLPs are serving as pulpit
supply in various congregations in their presbyteries. About
2,500 of these small-membership congregations are not financially
able to call a pastor at all. To provide pastoral leadership
for these congregations, how might financial assistance be
of benefit? What would be the best way to provide such assistance?
In what ways can large-membership congregations be of help?
- Key issues related to pastoral leadership for parish ministry
of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) in the 21st Century include:
- second-career candidates preparing for ministry
- racial/ethnic congregations and pastoral leaders
- women ministers of the Word and Sacrament in parish
ministry
- pastoral leaders in large-membership congregations
I hope that the above analysis will help to generate interest
and raise questions for serious discussions regarding the pastoral
leadership of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) in the 21st Century.
Notes.
1. New Times--New Call, A Manual of Pastoral Options for Small
Churches, Evangelism and Church Development Ministry Unit and
the Synod of the Sun, PCUSA, 1991.
2. Findings from the First-Ever Survey of Presbyterian Commissioned
Lay Pastors, Research Services, PCUSA, September 1997.
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