| by Keith. M. Wulff,
Coordinator
Research Services
I enjoy numbers. Nonetheless, I realize that sometimes I become
swamped with them and cannot see the forest for the trees. I
have taken the opportunity to write this introductory article
for the 1998 edition of Comparative Statistics so that
I might comment on some numbers that I think are important for
us to consider.
43 percent
This is the percentage of congregations that have
100 or fewer members (see Table 2). In 1983, 35 percent of congregations
had 100 or fewer members. This increase in the number of small
churches has been steady, but because the year-to-year change
has been small, it has gone largely unnoticed. This change has
had a dramatic effect on the denomination: Many believe that
the number of congregations that have difficulty affording a
full-time pastor has increased. Presbyteries provide the same
level of service to large and small congregations alike, but
receive less income from small congregations to cover their
work. Producers of church school curriculum are facing a shrinking
market, but steady or increasing marketing costs. At this time,
there is no reason to believe that the number of small congregations
will stop increasing any time soon.
33 percent
This is the percentage of congregations that did
not have an installed pastor at the end of 1998. In 1990, 28 percent
of congregations did not have a pastor. This number is influenced
not only by the ability of congregations to afford a pastor,
but also by the supply of pastors. Thus, the increase may indicate
a shortage of clergy. Today, 2,900 congregations with fewer
than 100 members do not have pastors. In 1990, 2,496 congregations
of that size did not have a pastor. The number of congregations
without a pastor has also increased among larger congregations.
In 1990, 103 congregations with 300 or more members did not
have a pastor. In 1998, that number was 136.
2,587,674
This is the membership of the Presbyterian
Church (U.S.A.) at the end of 1998 (see Table 1). In 1988, total
membership was 2,938,830. Our loss of members continues. The
number of members we are losing each year is declining, but
the percentage of members lost has decreased only slightly.
We are losing fewer members because we have fewer to lose. It's
easy to make fun of people who put too much emphasis on church
growth, and it's easy to say that if you're doing the will of
God you won't have many friends. But, why do we need to go to
extremes? I think the Presbyterian Church has an important message
to proclaim, and we should be concerned about the fact that
we are reaching fewer people every year.
15 percent
In 1982, the percentage of members who were 34 years
of age or younger was 22 percent. By 1997, the percentage had dropped
to 15 percent (data from the Presbyterian Panel). These figures are
important because they point out a major reason why our membership
is not rising: we are not keeping our young people. Dean Hoge
et al., in the book Vanishing Boundaries (published
by Westminster John Knox Press), spell out the reasons we have
not kept the daughters and sons of members. If your church has
few young people and has difficulties keeping your members'
children in the church, this is an important book for you.
$682.92
This is the average per member contribution reported by congregations
(see Table 10). Per member giving has increased steadily in
recent years. While we have fewer members, members' giving has
not slackened. The denomination still has the financial strength
to make changes needed to survive. There is reason to be concerned
about our continuing membership losses, but this concern should
not paralyze us. We have the resources needed to remedy the
situation.
$104,000,000
Congregations reported that they received
a total of $104,249,481 from bequests in 1998 (see Table 11).
In 1990, the total was $75 million--equivalent to about $94
million in 1998 dollars. This is additional evidence that Presbyterian
congregations still have resources that can be used for ministry.
Our loss of members has not resulted in a denomination without
resources. Rather, our resources are increasing every year.
6 percent
Congregations report that almost 94 percent of the denomination's
members are white (see Table 14). Only 6 percent of members are from
other racial-ethnic backgrounds. In one sense, this is a number
that we should forget. For a growing number of Presbyterians,
the old categories no longer make sense. I suspect a growing
number of our members are of mixed racial or ethnic backgrounds.
I know there are many members who do not want to be labeled
as a member of a particular race or ethnic group because they
don't fall neatly into one category. At the same time, we need
to remember this number, because it shows that the denomination
needs to do a better job of reaching out to racial-ethnic persons.
8 percent
Presently, 8 percent of our clergy are from non-white racial-ethnic
backgrounds (see Table 14), a percentage that is only slightly
higher than that for members. A study is now underway to identify
steps the denomination can take to attract more racial and ethnic
individuals to the ordained ministry of Word and Sacrament.
This study has suggested that some racial-ethnic women may be
having more trouble than their male counterparts receiving calls
from congregations.
23 percent
The percent of active clergy who are women is 23 percent
(see Table 9). Members and elders who have trouble accepting
women clergy need to know that this number has increased and
will continue to rise rapidly. Currently, almost 50 percent of Presbyterian
students enrolled in an M.Div. program at a Presbyterian seminary
are women (data from the Committee on Theological Education).
Soon women will make up almost 50 percent of the denomination's active
ordained clergy.
29 percent or more
The percentage of parish clergy who are at
least 55 years of age is 29 percent (Presbyterian Panel data). Currently,
the median age of seminary graduates is 42 years of age (data
from the Committee on Theological Education). With 29 percent of pastors
already over 55, retirement claims a larger percentage of clergy
every year. It appears that just as we are facing difficulties
attracting and keeping young persons as members, we are having
difficulties recruiting younger persons for the ministry. That
does not bode well for the future and provides another hint
of a coming clergy shortage. In fact, some people think the
clergy shortage is already upon us. If you're an optimist, you
might believe that the increase in the number of retired clergy
represents a possible solution to the increase in small congregations
without pastors, but this assumes that a significant number
of retired clergy would be open to a part-time call serving
a small congregation. It also assumes that this would be good
for the small congregations.
Numbers by themselves are neither good nor bad. Different congregations
will interpret these numbers differently. Nonetheless, in most
cases, ignoring numbers will probably hurt individual congregations
and ignoring the numbers above will certainly hurt the denomination.
I don't believe the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) is ignoring
these numbers, but it needs the help of as many members, elders,
and clergy as possible to address the situations presented by
these numbers. Talk about these numbers. Discuss them with other
Presbyterians and see what they think these numbers mean. Don't
hide your light under a bushel basket.
|
