by Lyle Schaller, Parish Consultant and Author

How do you read a booklet filled with denominational statistics?

The Historical Perspective

A common method is the historical approach. How do current numbers compare with earlier years? Which numbers are up? Which ones are down? Table 1 in this booklet provides the historical perspective. It reveals a net decrease of 260 congregations in ten years, despite the organizing of an average of 39 new churches annually. Dissolutions of congregations have averaged 45 per year. When mergers and dismissals are factored in, this suggests the need to organize an average of 84 new missions annually to remain on a plateau in the number of congregations.

Table 1 also reports a decrease of 391,950 in reported membership over ten years, or an average annual loss of 39,195. The average (mean) number of members per congregation is 235 which means the annual net loss is equivalent to the loss of 167 average-size congregations every year. That suggests the need to organize 167 new churches annually in order to maintain a constant number of members.

A Look at 1995

A second approach is to look internally at these statistics. Table 2 provides this perspective. It is interesting to note that the largest single group of congregations reported between 51 and 100 members. A close second is the group that includes congregations with 50 or fewer members. Together these two groups account for four out of ten PCUSA churches. Fully 66 percent of all PCUSA congregations report memberships of 200 or less. Congregations with fewer than 200 members often have difficulties attracting, challenging, adequately compensating, and retaining full-time, fully-credentialed pastors. Six years ago, 62 percent of congregations reported memberships of 200 members or less. Does that increase--from 7,208 congregations to 7,419 in 1995--suggest a coming shortage of jobs for our clergy? Does this mean an increasing demand for bivocational, dual-role, or part-time pastors?

Comparison With a Similar Denomination

A third useful approach calls for cross-denominational comparisons. Which denomination would provide an appropriate reference point for comparison? One possibility is the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA), which in 1995 included 11,203 congregations--only slightly fewer than the 11,361 in the PCUSA. The confirmed membership of the ELCA at the end of 1995 was 3,845,063--slightly more than that of the PCUSA (2,665,276 members). The ELCA is the closest in size to the PCUSA of any other religious body in the United States.

The average (median) size of an ELCA congregation in 1995 was 349 confirmed members. Among PCUSA congregations it was 128 in 1995, down from 132 in 1993. Average (mean) worship attendance is 145 in ELCA congregations and 122 in PCUSA congregations. Approximately 94 percent of members in both denominations are white, with 6 percent being racial-ethnic minorities.

Both the ELCA and the PCUSA have cut back sharply on new church development in recent years. In the 1959-66 period the two predecessor denominations of the ELCA organized a total of 976 new churches, an average of 122 annually. In recent years the figure has been closer to 50 new church developments annually. The two predecessor denominations of the PCUSA started a total of 712 new congregations in the same 1959-66 period--an annual average of 89. During the past eight years the PCUSA has organized an average of 38 congregations annually; 28 were organized in 1995.

There were 7,658 adult baptisms and 79,090 infant baptisms in the ELCA in 1995. This represents a total of 86,748 baptisms, or 23 per 1,000 confirmed members. In the PCUSA, 12,979 adults and 40,375 infants were baptized in 1995. The total of 53,354 baptisms is equal to 20 per 1,000 confirmed members.

Financial contributions in ELCA congregations averaged $388 per member in 1995; among PCUSA congregations it averaged $582. ELCA parishes reported a total of 3,875 bequests in 1995, and PCUSA congregations reported 2,796 bequests (totaling $74,212,502).

Multi-Denominational Comparisons

A fourth perspective for reflecting on denominational statistics is to broaden the comparison base to include a number of other denominations. For example, we could use average attendance at worship to compare the PCUSA to 10 other Protestant denominations (see table below). On this measure of size (which eliminates discrepancies resulting from varying definitions of membership), the PCUSA places just above the middle of the group. The table also suggests that an average worship attendance of 60 to 120 is typical for American Protestant congregations.

Median Number of Worshipers—1994

Note: 1994 is the most recent year for such comparable figures are available for all denominations listed.

Too often we describe congregations that average 125 people at worship as "small churches." But these figures show that is a serious misreading of contemporary reality! An average worship attendance of 125 means that such a congregation is: (a) larger than 70 percent of PCUSA congregations, and (b) larger than four out of five congregations in American Protestantism.

What Do These Data Mean to You?

For many readers, the only useful perspective can be summarized in seven words:

What do these data mean to us?

These figures can provide benchmarks for congregational self-evaluations. Here are five examples:

• Is your congregation larger or smaller than the PCUSA median of 128 members with a median average worship attendance of 78 (up from 75 in 1994)?
• Are the financial contributions from your members above or below the denominational average for the PCUSA of $582 per member?
• What was your per member giving for validated mission expenditures in 1995? Was it above or below the PCUSA average of $47.31 per member?
• How does the percentage increase or decrease in membership of your congregation compare to that of the denomination as a whole?
• What is the "death rate" among your members? Are you losing more members to death than is average among PCUSA congregations (15 deaths per 1,000 members)?

Finally, these statistics can be useful for policy makers in presbyteries, synods, and General Assembly entities and agencies. These numbers raise a series of questions for PCUSA policy makers. Five examples will illustrate this perspective:

Our membership is growing older in age and smaller in numbers. What will be the central component of a strategy to reverse that pattern? Should we plant more new missions? Should we challenge two hundred congregations each year to make a fresh start at larger, "better" locations? Should we challenge congregations to sponsor new missions? Should we focus on revitalizing congregations that have had shrinking memberships? What other methods might be used to address this issue?

How can we empower the 3,500 congregations that average 50 or fewer at worship to allow them to double or triple in size? What do we need to provide to help them meet that goal?

Given that the United States is going through an era of the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in world history, is it possible to double the number of bequests received by congregations?

What can be done to raise the ratio of worship attendance-to-membership in our congregations above the current ratio of 55 percent?

How can we help churches be more effective in ministry with generations born after 1955? . . . with new immigrant populations? . . . with other specific populations?

Which perspective do you find most useful in studying these statistics?

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