A recent international summit in Kyoto, Japan, produced plans for the world's nations to scale back the production of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The specter of melting ice caps and shifting weather patterns is sufficiently abstract and far-off that few of us spend much time worrying over the possibilities, but the meeting in Kyoto suggests a move among world leaders to be "better safe than sorry" in the face of a growing scientific consensus that dire consequences will likely follow even moderate increases in world temperatures.
What do Presbyterians think about the threat of global warming? In a Presbyterian Panel survey taken in May 1997, six months before the Kyoto summit, we asked representative national samples of members, elders, and ministers about this and other environmental matters. A similar question was asked of panelists in 1991, so we also have some evidence on the trend in Presbyterian opinions.
About a third of members and elders, and just under one-half of pastors and other clergy, see global warming as "one of the most serious" environmental problems facing our planet. Most of the rest--between 35 percent and 40 percent in every sample--rate global warming as "no more serious than others." While a few "don't know" what to think, around a fifth of members and elders, and a tenth of clergy, view rising worldwide temperatures as "one of the least serious" environmental problems.
The figure shows how Presbyterian views on global warming compare with those on other environmental issues. Clearly many believe other matters pose more serious threats to the Earth than climate change.
That conclusion is confirmed by responses to a follow-up question, in which panelists denoted, in order, which three of 26 listed environmental problems were the most serious of all. Only 3 percent of members, 6 percent of elders, 8 percent of pastors, and 9 percent of specialized clergy ranked global warming as the single most serious problem facing the environment. Overall, 13 percent of members, 17 percent of elders, and 26 percent of pastors listed global warming among the three most-serious problems. That compares with a third in each sample who ranked air pollution among the top three, and almost as many (28 percent-29 percent) who ranked rain forest destruction there.
Have views changed since 1991? In a word, no. In every sample, opinions have shifted only slightly and remain well within a range attributable to sampling error.
Presbyterians are much like other Americans in their opinions on global warming. In national polls, air pollution and toxic waste contamination draw more concern than climate change. In 1997, for example, only 24 percent of Americans indicated that they worry "a great deal" about global warming. U.S. opinion on global warming has, like Presbyterian opinion, stayed relatively steady in recent years, based on comparisons of polls taken in 1990 and 1997.
If the weight of current scientific judgment is correct, it will be interesting to monitor the opinion of Americans in general and Presbyterians in particular as the temperatures rise. In the meantime, stay cool.
A longer Presbyterian Panel Summary describing results of this study is also available online. Or, order a copy of the complete results from PDS at (800) 524-2612 and request the May 1997 Presbyterian Panel Report on "Nature and the Enviroment" (#70360-97252). The cost is $5.00.
Email the author: Jack Marcum
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