I've heard it and I've seen it in print: Large churches are getting larger and small churches are getting smaller. If this statement is accurate, the mid-size church could become as extinct as a dinosaur. Many accept this as the truth, but since I'm the skeptical type, I wanted to see if this is true for Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) congregations.
One way to take a closer look is to ask, "Does it take more members today to be one of the 10 largest PCUSA congregations than it did 10 years ago?" In 1986, a mere 7,830 members would have made your congregation the largest (an achievement of Highland Park Presbyterian Church, Dallas, Texas), and about 3,800 members would have let your congregation claim the number ten spot in the list of largest congregations. However, by 1996 (the latest year available) more than 11,000 members were required to claim the top spot the largest PCUSA congregation (an achievement now claimed by Peachtree Presbyterian Church, Atlanta, Georgia). The tenth largest congregation can be still be achieved with only 4,000 members. Table 1 reveals that the gap between the membership of Peachtree Presbyterian Church and the second largest church, Village Presbyterian Church (Prairie Village, Kansas) is more than 4,800 members. At least we can say, "Among Presbyterian congregations, the largest church is getting larger."
Table 1
Ten Largest Congregations Based on Membership
Size-- 1996
| Church | Location | Membership |
|---|---|---|
| Peachtree | Atlanta, GA | 11,432 |
| Village | Prairie Village, KS | 6,594 |
| Highland Park | Dallas, TX | 5,344 |
| First | Colorado Springs, CO | 5,054 |
| First | Orlando, FL | 4,952 |
| Menlo Park | Menlo Park, CA | 4,890 |
| First | Greenville, SC | 4,333 |
| Memorial Drive | Houston, TX | 4,264 |
| St. Andrews | Newport Beach, CA | 4,234 |
| Fourth | Chicago, IL | 4,053 |
Another strategy to test the accuracy of the statement is to count the number of churches by size (i.e., small, 100 members of less; mid-size, between 101 and 300 members; and large, more than 300 members) and track the trend over time. While the total number of PCUSA congregations has declined 2.9 percent (or 314 churches), the number of small churches has grown from 4,161 to 4,757, meaning small-membership churches occupy more of the landscape (an increase of 596 churches or 14 percent). During the same time period, the number and percentage of large-membership churches declined. In 1983, almost 27% of PCUSA churches were large-membership churches, but by 1996, only 22% had 300 or more members. By this test, the number of large churches has declined by 20% (or 622 churches).
What about mid-size congregations? In 1983, 37% of PCUSA congregations fit the mid-size description. However, by 1996, only 36% were mid-size congregations. While this represents a drop of 7% (or 308 churches), it is less than the percentage drop of large-membership congregations in the same time period. In short, there are more small-membership churches today, somewhat fewer mid-size, but substantially fewer large- membership churches.
Finally, what about the average membership of churches in these three size categories? Has the average dropped in small- membership churches? Has it increased in large-membership churches? Analysis of these trends reveals that the average size of small membership churches in 1996 was 52 members, only 2 members less than the average in 1983. Large churches are not getting larger by this test either: They averaged 662 members in 1996, about 13 members less than the average in 1983. Mid-size congregations in 1996 could boast an average of 178 members, just 4 members less than the average in 1983.
Compared to 1983, there are currently more small-membership congregations, both in number and as a percentage of all PCUSA congregations. However, the average number of members in small congregations has remained about the same. There are fewer mid-size and large-membership congregations now than in the past, again, both in number and as a percentage of all PCUSA congregations. Large membership churches had the biggest drop in average number of members of the three size categories. On average, large-membership PCUSA churches are not growing larger, although Peachtree presents an extreme exception.
PCUSA membership patterns suggest that the call of alarm about the health and future of mid-size congregations is greatly exaggerated. Mid-size congregations do not need to be placed on the endangered species list. A more accurate statement is: "Large churches are not getting larger, but there are more small churches than ever before."