"If we define situations as real, they are real in their consequences." W. I. Thomas

At the recent General Assembly meeting, I couldn't turn around without overhearing someone mention "the clergy shortage." I regret that I didn't interrupt to ask what they meant by that term. Did they mean it literally, as a shortfall in the number of ministers? Or were they using the phrase as shorthand for a more nuanced view, expressed frequently by Marcia Myers (of Churchwide Personnel Services) and others, that emphasizes the growing number of tiny congregations and increasing constraints on the calls ministers will consider?

The difference is important, because it affects how the PC(USA) responds. If we perceive a shortage of pastors, pure and simple, then the logical response is to recruit more candidates for ministry. But given the complexity of the problem, a blanket "recruitment drive" would do little to fill existing vacant pulpits and might result in a large pool of alienated individuals unable to find suitable calls.

The table shows the situation. The proportion of small congregations, the ones that have the most difficulty obtaining a pastor, is growing. In 1990, 38 percent of PC(USA) congregations had 100 or fewer members, and that figure had grown to 44 percent by 2000.

Trends in Congregations and Pastor Vacancies by Membership Size

But the table also shows that small congregations are having increasing difficulty in finding pastors. The proportion of congregations with 100 or fewer members not only grew by 6 percent during the 1990s, but the proportion of those congregations without a pastor also grew by 6 percent (56 percent to 62 percent). It's a double whammy: at a time when we have increasing numbers of small congregations, we have increasing trouble finding pastors for them.

Why the increase in vacancies in small congregations? The most likely explanation one that would also account for the increase in vacancies among mid-size congregations as well involves changes in the life situations of ordained ministers. For various reasons, including dual career marriages and more second-career clergy, more ministers limit the kinds and locations of calls they will consider.

Some indirect statistical support for this view is found in the growth in the number of ministers classified as "members at large." This category jumped 55 percent (!) from 1990 to 2000 (1,350 to 2,104). It seems odd that the number of ordained ministers who are unemployed or have secular jobs would grow so dramatically in a period of increasing vacancies unless those seeking calls were being more selective in what they would consider.

In short, I see little evidence of a literal shortage of ministers. Instead, the problem is finding pastors for the congregations, mostly small, that need them, from among the many ordained ministers no longer serving congregations or involved in other church mission. But how we do that?

General efforts to recruit more inquirers and candidates for ministry seem misguided. That may help at the margins, but it's not going to solve the twin problems of tiny congregations that are not economically viable and ministers who are tied to a particular city or region. Radical solutions, such as closing most of the small congregations, are unlikely to be embraced by many. Making more use of commissioned lay pastors, a practice already under way in several presbyteries, seems like the best option of those currently available.