MAS Victory in Bolivia Signifies Mandate for Change

by Jeffrey Vogt, WOLA Senior Associate for Rights and Development

Barefoot and clad in a replica of ancient ceremonial vestments, Evo Morales was first recognized as the indigenous leader of Bolivia at a ceremony in the pre-Incan ruins of Tiwanaku. The January 21 ceremony was attended by mallkus (Aymara leaders), thousands of well-wishers and the international media. On the following day, with hand on heart and fist held high, Evo Morales was inaugurated as President of Bolivia. Tens of thousands of people danced outside the presidential palace waving the wipala, a symbol of indigenous unity. With public expectations high, the former coca growers' union leader and congressman faces the difficult work of governing a complex and divided country.

The election of President Morales in December 2005 concluded a constitutional process sparked by President Carlos Mesa's resignation last June, when a series of popular demonstrations and debilitating strikes over the disposition of Bolivia's natural gas reserves brought the country to a standstill. The race between Evo Morales and his main opponent, Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, to succeed interim president Eduardo Rodriguez was widely expected to be close. Instead, President Morales secured an electoral victory that was historic for several reasons.

As is well known, President Morales is the first indigenous leader to govern Bolivia, where more than 62% of the people identify themselves as indigenous. And, 'Evo' has made it a priority of the new government to reflect that demographic, ensuring the participation of indigenous representatives in key positions. For example, Bolivia's Foreign Minister, David Choquehuanaca, is an Aymara intellectual who is articulating state policy in terms of indigenous thought and practice.

Additionally, no president since the return to democracy in 1982 has enjoyed such an overwhelming mandate — 54% — made possible by broad-based support both in terms of geography and class.1 In fact, support for 'Evo' reached 33% in Santa Cruz, an opposition stronghold, and middle class voters made up a large percentage of his overall support in Bolivia. In contrast, Gonzales Sanchez de Lozada, the last president elected to that office, earned only 22% of the vote in 2002 — less than 2% more than Mr. Morales.

Importantly, President Morales' victory also signals a clear rejection of the political, economic and social policies of the post-dictatorship governments, which largely failed to bring significant, comprehensive development to the country. Indeed, after more than 20 years of corruption and dutiful adherence to the Washington Consensus — shorthand for policies based on economic macro-stabilization, trade and capital market liberalization and privatization, Bolivia remains the poorest country in Latin America. At least 65% of the population still lives below the poverty line, the majority of them indigenous people.2 Also, according to official estimates, 9.5% of urban-dwellers are unemployed.3

To turn the situation around, President Morales plans to reinsert state institutions into economic and social policymaking and to direct the government's income from the extraction of natural gas reserves toward development projects, public services (health, education, utilities) and credit for small businesses and rural producers. To do this, the government has promised to issue a decree shortly to "nationalize": the hydrocarbon sector. Although the details have yet to be finalized, nationalization, according to Minister of the Presidency, Juan Ramon Quintana, will mean that the transnational companies currently invested in Bolivia will take on the role of service provider to Yacimientos Petrolifieros Fiscales Bolviianos (YPFB), the state oil and gas company.4

Additionally, President Morales has decided to break with Colombia and Peru and reject a free trade deal with the United States. Instead, the government has proposed a People's Trade Agreement, the objectives of which include "promoting a model of trade integration between people that limits and regulates the rights of foreign investors and multinationals so that they serve the purpose of national productive development." Such an agreement would allow governments to retain critical policy space to promote domestic industries, protect agriculture and promote food sovereignty, and to retain public ownership of basic services.

Further, Bolivia recently informed the WTO that it would not subject water services to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), leaving open the ability for water services to be controlled by the state — a demand of social movements. Previous conflicts over water services, in Cochabamba and El Alto, led to the suspension of service contracts with multinationals Bechtel and Suez. The government is currently negotiating with the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation, to allow a state owned enterprise to manage water services previously provided by Suez. Earlier this year, Bechtel dropped its claim against Bolivia for the Cochabamba concession for 2 Bolivianos, or roughly 25 cents.

His election also signals a challenge to current U.S. drug policy. President Morales and his supporters have championed the right of Bolivians to grow coca leaves for domestic consumption, while proclaiming zero tolerance for cocaine trafficking. Many U.S. policymakers are uneasy at the thought of state-approved coca production in the Andes. However, the long-term failure of U.S. drug policy in Bolivia, aimed until quite recently at total elimination of coca, had provoked profound resentment among Bolivians, with deep echoes at the polls. To date, the U.S. government has maintained a "wait and see" approach toward the government's coca policy; however, there is no doubt that this policy, and the U.S. response to it, will color the relationship between the two nations. The need for accurate information on coca cultivation in Bolivia and the government's policies concerning eradication and interdiction among policymakers is indeed high.

Difficult domestic challenges also lie ahead for Bolivia. President Morales will have to balance many competing and at times contradictory demands, from the right and the left, the poor and the middle class. Already, a series of strikes have erupted from varied sectors to make their demands on the government, including from teachers, health care workers and transportation workers. The most recent conflict involving the workers of Lloyds Aerolinea Boliviana (LAB), a highly indebted airline which was partially privatized under the presidency of Gonzalo Sanchex de Lozada, has pitted social movement leaders, who are calling for the nationalization of the airline and the assumption of the debt - over $150 million, against the government. In April, striking airline workers occupied the Cochabamba airport; provoking President Morales to send in the military to retake control. Intense negotiations have since resumed, with the proposal that the workers purchase the privately held shares of the airline from the current shareholder.

One major, initial success has been the passage of legislation to convene a Constituent Assembly, one of the cornerstones of President Morales' campaign and a demand of the indigenous for over a decade. The Assembly will allow for democratically elected representatives from various sectors of society to convene and reform the constitution. Once the assembly completes the process of constitutional reform, anticipated to take about a year, the body will dissolve. While there are some disagreements over the election process and the scope of the reforms, the hope is that all Bolivians will feel an ownership in the state governed by the new constitution.

On the international front, the government faces both challenges and opportunities. Morales has already reached out to neighbors in South America, to Europe, to South Africa and to China for political and economic support. Most recently, Bolivia has begun to reopen diplomatic channels with Chile, which were broken off decades ago, when negotiations for access to the Pacific Ocean ended in failure. Bolivia lost its access to the ocean to Chile following the War of the Pacific, which ended in 1884. Of course, Bolivia's relationship with the U.S. will likely be the most difficult challenge in the long run. While the State Department has demonstrated some willingness to work with the new government, other signals from within the administration are less positive. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld called the Morales election in Bolivia worrisome and has frequently expressed concern over the relationship that Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez has cultivated with Evo.5 Rhetoric aside, there exists as strong interest on the part of Bolivia to build a constructive, respectful relationship between the two nations.

On Opposing the Free Trade Area of the Americas in its Current Form

[The 215th General Assembly (2003) approved actions to:]

1. Support efforts to strive toward international cooperation based on fair trade, respect for diversity, and common concerns for a peaceful, just, and sustainable world.

2. Oppose multinational actions and trade agreements that elevate rights of corporations over the right of governments and indigenous peoples to pass and enforce laws that preserve the public good and protect their citizens, economies, and environments.

5. Call on presbyteries, churches, and church members to do the following:

a. Become educated about the FTAA, NAFTA, the South American Trade Market (MERCOSUL), and other trade agreements, and the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO), and other multinational organizations in creating and enforcing globalization policies that are unsustainable and unjust.