Elections for Palestinian Authority president will be held in January 2005.
Renewal of negotiations over the Road Map peace plan are hoped for, but President
Bush needs to manage Israeli P.M. Sharon and the U.S. Congress if he wants to
rebuild the peace plan. There is an opportunity to advance peace. Will Mr. Bush
make the most of it?
It is hard to be confident that President Bush will stick by his word. He
stepped right up to the plate following his reelection and the death of Palestinian
President Arafat, with words we longed to hear. Now we must watch his actions,
encourage his best inclinations, and be ready to counter the hawkish Jewish and
Christian supporters of the status quo, especially in Congress.
The president started fast, in part motivated by the need to garner international
help for the Iraq morass. As Congress was rushing to finish the lame duck session
and get home, the President notified the lawmakers that the administration would
bypass all congressional restrictions on aid to the Palestinian Authority and
give $20 million directly to them to pay salaries. The White House initiated,
and the Senate unanimously agreed to, a leadership-sponsored resolution supporting
the joint statement of President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
They recognized that much of the newly opened opportunity would depend on how
the administration responded in the first weeks of the post-Arafat era. Clearly,
the President has decided to spend "political capital" to help the
moderate Palestinian leadership in its contest over political succession as an
essential step along the Road Map peace process.
On the Road Again with Rice
Now that George W. Bush has been reelected president, the dormant Road Map
peace plan — developed by the U.S., Russia, the U.N. and the European Union — is
again the frame of reference for deliberations about U.S. pressure on Israel
and the Palestinians. The plan, developed in 2002 and launched in March 2003,
lays out the goal — "an independent, democratic, and viable Palestinian
state living side-by-side in peace and security with Israel and its other neighbors.
The settlement will resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict, and end the occupation
that began in 1967, based on the foundations of the Madrid conference, the principle
of land for peace, UNSCRs 242, 338 and 1397.." (for this and other documents,
go to "resources" at www.cmep.org)
Bush is consolidating his power, eliminating dissent and debate, by placing
political appointees in key positions. Secretary of State Powell disagreed with
the administration, wanting a harder line with Sharon, with little effect. But
no one in the Administration is closer to the President than Condoleezza Rice,
who will move from head of National Security Council to the top slot at State. Ron
Kampas of the Jewish Telegraphic Agency (JTA) posits that "a tighter ship
in Washington means an easier ride when the two nations are in agreement — and
more pointed pressure when they are not."
Diana Buttu, a legal adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team, told JTA
that Rice's reputation as adamantly pro-Israel may be over-blown. Buttu said
that Rice "got it" when the P.A. team presented her with a map showing
Jewish settlement in the West Bank and a projected route of the security fence
that would have sliced up the area. As a result, intense U.S. pressure led Israel
to change the route, bringing portions of the separation barrier closer to the
Green Line (the pre-1967 boundary of Israel).
During his reelection campaign, while courting supporters of Israel among
Jewish and conservative Christian voters in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, President
Bush didn't talk of Israel's need to make concessions. But Rice's speech to a
national AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) meeting in Florida
a few days before the election gave notice that Israel must "take steps
to support the emergence of a viable Palestinian state." Rice's relationship
with Brent Scowcroft, her mentor and a close associate of the President's father,
is remembered. Scowcroft , in a Washington Post op-ed on November 12, made extraordinary
policy recommendations: "The United States should insist that Israel stop
construction of its wall on the West Bank and mirror its withdrawal from Gaza
with the evacuation of the West Bank. In return, the wall and Israeli troops
would be replaced by an international force, principally European or perhaps
NATO troops."
Election on Fast Track
Palestinian elections, and the preparation process, fit neatly into the Road
Map plan. The target date for the establishment of the state of Palestine was
an opening question in the new debate. Palestinian Prime Minister Qurei pointed
to the Road Map's vision of a state in 2005, saying that President Bush's projection
of a Palestinian state by 2009, "will allow Israel to continue building
settlements and swallowing more Palestinian land" to build the wall.
For the elections, Palestinians will need to move freely throughout the West
Bank and Gaza, requiring Israel to remove roadblocks and military checkpoints,
withdraw troops from the territories and end military incursions. The involvement
of international monitors is certain and will bring the long-sought presence
of third party observers to the occupied land. It is expected that some members
of the House of Representatives will join the National Democratic Institute contingent.
The election agenda should start a flow of economic and technical support for
the elections from the U.S., the E.U. and Arab states, which will alleviate the
worsening poverty of the Palestinians.
Voting by Palestinians in East Jerusalem is essential for elections to be
deemed legitimate. How this is done will provide an early test of U.S. diplomatic
resolve. Though Jerusalemites have the same legal status as Palestinians in the
rest of the Occupied Territories, Israel resists an election modality that weakens
its claim of sovereignty over the Jerusalem neighborhoods and suburbs that it
annexed. Voter registration concluded on October 13, but Israel did not allow
registration in East Jerusalem. In 1996, East Jerusalem Palestinians went to
the post office, and inserted their ballots, for president and for the legislative
council, into separate ballot boxes, which were taken to Jerusalem suburbs for
counting. Ahmed Qurei, the current prime minister, is an elected Jerusalem representative
as is Hanan Ashrawi, a Christian woman popular in the United States.
With President Arafat gone, competition within the nationalist movement between "young
guard" and "old guard,"and between nationalists and Islamists
could result in internal infighting if the election process is not seen as credible.
Certainly there needs to be an internal Palestinian agreement among all the
factions on a ceasefire during the campaign and on election-day itself. And,
of course, the Israelis need to respect this internal ceasefire by observing
a cease fire of their own and by stopping incursions and assassinations. There
are early reports that Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom recognizes that
new Palestinian leaders will not be able to halt terrorism "with the push
of a button" and that an end of incitement to violence in its mass media
would demonstrate good intentions. A decision by Israel to release political
prisoners would provide immediate evidence to all factions of the benefit of
a new Palestinian leadership and a new strategic approach to Israel.
Let us keep in mind that, however important Palestinian elections are, the
underlying causes of the conflict must be addressed. Public confidence that the
occupation will end is crucial to the success of Palestinian governance and stopping
violence. Transforming public opinion toward hope for peace, along with popular
recognition that violence against Israeli citizens blocks peacemaking, is the
best way to prevent terrorism.
Expanding Settlements
The Road Map's demand that Israel "immediately" dismantle settlement
outposts and freeze all settlement activity, including the "natural growth" of
settlements has been ignored and settlements have grown. Peace Now, an Israeli
group that monitors settlements, has documented continued expansion of settlements
and outposts, including settlements designated to be evacuated under the Gaza
disengagement plan. Expansion includes new homes, roads and farm land.
Despite the fact that Israeli ministries have funded the establishment and
maintenance of settlement outposts, the U.S. government has failed in 2004 to
deduct sums for Israeli government investments in the occupied territories from
the amount of the U.S. loan guarantees made available to Israel. Continued tolerance
by the Bush Administration of Israel's non-implementation of the Road Map's clear
directive regarding settlements would give dangerous signals to Palestinians
and Israelis that Mr. Bush's support of peacemaking is only rhetorical.
The President will need to show quickly that he means business. Without visible
changes on the ground, neither Palestinians nor the international community will
be convinced. Indicators would be deductions from the amount of U.S. loan guarantees
and insisting that Israel comply with the Road Map's requirements relative to
other settlements and outposts in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. In the April
2004 exchange of letters, P.M. Sharon committed to evacuate the unauthorized
outposts. But the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv reports that Israel has failed to
keep its promise. Also, firm action by the President would strengthen P.M. Sharon's
hand against the fierce opposition of the settler movement to the evacuation
of Gaza settlements.
Support for the Administration serving as a credible, evenhanded broker came
from key U.S. Jewish leaders, in a letter to Ms. Rice organized by the Israel
Policy Forum. The signers asserted that "this is the right time for Israel
to fulfill its commitments to stop settlement activity." Rabbi Eric
Yoffie, president of the Union for Reform Judaism, and Rabbi Jerome Epstein,
executive vice president of The United Synagogue of Conservative Judaism, were
among the more than 70 signers.
Gaza Disengagement
P.M. Sharon's plan to vacate settlers from Gaza and a few settlements in the
northern West Bank began as a unilateral move disconnected from the Road Map.
But in this new political climate, the Gaza Disengagement plan, now stumbling
through Israel's political maze, could be a positive first step, but only if
it is a FIRST step followed by negotiations toward disengagement from the West
Bank as well, and an independent, viable state based on UN resolutions. Palestinians
will not be pacified by a Palestinian state composed only of Gaza and part of
the northern West Bank, severed from East Jerusalem, with Israel sealing the
borders and denying Gaza access to a seaport and an airport. The Arab states
and people would reject such an outcome, ending the comprehensive resolution
that offers Israel security.
The grand excuse of P.M. Sharon, that Israel had no partner for peace with
Arafat in power, has evaporated. Now, new Palestinian leadership might
see opportunity instead of conspiracy in the disengagement plan and engage in
negotiations, with Quartet support, on the withdrawal. Rather than the feared
aftermath of anarchy in Gaza, it is now feasible that the Palestinian Authority
can rebuild its security apparatus and consolidate authority if Israel stops
military incursions, house demolitions and assassinations in Gaza.
Unless there is recognition that political negotiations will lead to the end
of the occupation and a viable Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital,
the Palestinian elections-key to the President's ambitions for democracy-will
not bring an end to the conflict.
Suggested Action:
Administration: Keep in mind that it is the White House that has the
authority to make and carry out foreign policy. All signals are that now, in
his second term, President Bush is ready to engage in an Israeli-Palestinian
peace process. The White House needs evidence of support and encouragement from
citizens. As we know, this President places great emphasis on faith-based advocacy,
so reference to your Christianity is suitable, and a useful counter to the lobbying
of Christian Zionists.
There are many issues and principles that could and must be brought to the
attention of policymakers. The PC(USA) addresses many aspects of the requirements
of a just peace in letters to and meetings with the Administration by PC(USA)
leaders and staff and in coalition with Churches for Middle East Peace. However,
the ordinary citizen advocate is wise to focus each message on a few specific
points. One way that public opinion is measured is by tabulating communications
to the White House. Call the White House comments line or send an email to president@whitehouse.gov with
the following message:
President Bush's support for Palestinian elections and his commitment to a
Palestinian state living at peace with Israel is good news. I appeal to
the President to make clear that East Jerusalem must be part of the state of
Palestine for it to be viable. Hope for peace in the Holy Land and a shared Jerusalem
would be a wonderful Christmas gift for the nation and the world.
Congress: Congress can either encourage or block the Administration's
initiatives. The White House is likely to look to the Senate for congressional
backing, where the Majority and Minority Leaders were quickly called into service
on November 19 to sponsor a resolution commending the Bush-Blair joint statement.
There are a number of Senators, both Republican and Democratic, who are serious
about foreign policy and recognize the dangers and opportunities of the present
moment for Israel and the Palestinians. This time, before and in the opening
weeks of the new session in January, is opportune to organize a meeting with
your senators at one of their state offices. At a face-to-face meeting, additional
issues can be discussed, such as the importance of freezing settlements and not
allowing the separation barrier to take Palestinian land. Emphasize that a negotiated
two-state resolution is good for Israel, the Palestinians and the people of the
United States.
For both your senators and representative, a Christmas card with your handwritten
message is a creative mode of advocacy. Mail your card — a Bethlehem crèche
scene would be perfect — with your note to their local office or Washington office. Suggested
messages:
